What Will Happen to Libya?

There are at least six “hot spots” on the political map today: Syria, Ukraine, Libya, Sudan, Iraq and Afghanistan. There are so many conflicts, but until something really loud happens there, we begin to forget about these crisis territories.

Libya. No entry for foreigners

We recalled Libya for the last time in April, when Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, commander of the country’s east, made a desperate attempt to unite the country. The offensive to capture the capital of Tripoli failed.

In addition to the battles between east and west, there is another reason forcing us to read about Libya. This is the fate of foreigners. Today, in Libya, two Russian sailors were released – the captain and senior assistant of the Temeteron tanker Vladimir Tekuchev and Sergey Samoilov, who languished in prison for three years.

Continuing the theme of foreigners, one can recall the death of the Ukrainian pilot. On July 29, the armed forces of the Government of National Accord launched rocket attacks and blew up two Il-76 cargo aircraft. The attack occurred on the territory of the Al-Jufra military base, which is controlled by the forces of Khalifa Haftar.

Perhaps in Libya we will again have a long lull. However, news from the north of Africa comes less often, the situation is not getting better.

Libyans are tired of war

Surveys show that the main problems that concern Libyans are related to security. The top 3 looks like this: “the presence of armed groups and the spread of weapons” (39%), “insecurity” (38%), “military operations in the country” (30%).

The reasons for the instability of Libya are associated with the events of eight years ago. After the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, the former Jamahiriya fell into three parts. The East is controlled by the House of Representatives, relying on the bayonets of the Libyan National Army under the command of Khalifa Haftar. The West is a UN-recognized Government of National Accord led by Faiz Saraj. In the south, Tubu and Tuareg militias are operating.

Most Libyans understand how much they lost after the overthrow of Gaddafi. Disappointed not only the supporters of the former ruler, but also those who opposed him in March 2011 – the Tuaregs and the leaders of other tribes. The survey showed that the number of those who are positive towards Gaddafi is higher than his opponents. 43% against 33%.

The security problem is more concerned with citizens living in the territory accountable to Most Libyans understand how much they lost after the overthrow of Gaddafi. Disappointed not only the supporters of the former ruler, but also those who opposed him in March 2011 – the Tuaregs and the leaders of other tribes. The survey showed that the number of those who are positive towards Gaddafi is higher than his opponents. 43% against 33%.

The security problem is more worrying for citizens living in the territory accountable to Fayez Mustafa al-Sarraj.

The situation is complicated not only by internal political confrontation, but also by the intervention of external forces. Haftar is supported by Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, France and the USA. Sarajah – Turkey, Qatar and Italy.

The survey showed another curious nuance – most Libyans, whether residents of the west, south or east – look negatively at the role of external players.

Who will unite Libya?

What are the prospects for a truce between the warring parties in Libya? The situation is extremely complicated. People clearly have no understanding of who will rule the country further. Haftar is old. Nevertheless, his ambitions are clear, he put everything at stake. And if he loses, there will be no compromise.

After unsuccessful battles for the LNA (Libyan National Army.), Fighting for Asia is a key area south of Tripoli that Haftar failed to control, the situation is at an impasse. All attempts to renew the attacks on Tripoli by the Haftar forces are limited only by loud statements that Tripoli is “about to fall.” But no one takes them seriously for a long time.

For Haftar’s allies – the UAE, Egypt and Saudi Arabia – now it’s not about a new field marshal’s attempt to storm the Libyan capital, but about keeping him “as an active player in the Libyan field.” At the same time, the “strengthened” Sarraj refuses to negotiate and considers Haftar a state criminal.

Given the current alignment of forces, the war in Libya may continue for several more years.


By Phil Uman
Source: The Katehon