The Plot to Replace the African Union’s Role in the Ethiopian Peace Process Won’t Succeed
What’s happening is patently obvious to any objective observer, and it’s that the US and EU are trying to finagle themselves into the Ethiopian peace process by hook or by crook in order to preserve some of their zero-sum hegemonic interests in that country through their TPLF proxies.
The latest Hybrid War plot against Ethiopia is to replace the African Union’s (AU) role in its peace process, which Foreign Ministry Spokesman Meles Alem said on Friday is “totally unacceptable.” He encouraged all responsible stakeholders to support its efforts in full coordination with that continental body and the federal government but decried any attempts to subvert the AU. Alem’s remarks came after the EU and US envoys visited Tigray and infamously took a selfie with a terrorist leader. They also followed the fake news that he debunked on the same day as his statement regarding the AU supposedly accommodating those Western forces’ desire to join the bloc’s negotiating team.
What’s happening is patently obvious to any objective observer, and it’s that the US and EU are trying to finagle themselves into the Ethiopian peace process by hook or by crook in order to preserve some of their zero-sum hegemonic interests in that country through their TPLF proxies. That terrorist group’s offensive from November 2020 failed to overthrow the country’s democratically elected government or “Bosnify” its administrative setup, and the US-led West’s backup plan of relying on Al Shabaab to that end will certainly also fall flat too. Instead of abandoning its policy of meddling, the US is now trying to go about it in a different way through fake news and the creation of parallel processes.
The first-mentioned tactic is meant to discredit the AU and provoke distrust about its intentions among average Ethiopians in the hopes that they’ll pressure their government into falling for the plot to replace that bloc with the second tactic connected to the US’ creation of the aforesaid parallel processes. That plot is doomed to fail though since this targeted civilization-state’s leadership is well aware of what’s going on as confirmed by Friday’s press conference. Under no circumstances will Addis allow anyone to subvert the AU’s role in the peace process, nor for it to become a fait accompli that it must engage with parallel Western-controlled proxies meant to advance other’s interests at its expense.
Reviewing the sequence of events leading up to the US-led TPLF-driven Hybrid War of Terror on Ethiopia and everything that subsequently transpired, the American modus operandi becomes a lot clearer. Washington pressured Addis to choose between it and Beijing in the New Cold War, but that Horn of Africa leader wisely picked the third path of principled neutrality, which was why the US punished it. The combination of terrorism, sanctions, and information warfare failed to depose its democratically elected government though, which is why America is now trying to meddle in its peace process by discrediting the AU while creating an alternative process under its own influence to replace that bloc’s role
With this insight in mind, it can therefore be said that it’s the US and not Ethiopia that’s on the backfoot after being forced on the strategic defensive following that target society’s people coming together in patriotic solidarity to defend their civilization-state against their former partner’s Hybrid War onslaught. Washington’s terrorist proxies were beaten back and remain contained to the northern part of the country, while that declining unipolar hegemon failed to divide and rule the rest of its cosmopolitan population like it expected to do in provoking a Color Revolution as its primary backup plan in that scenario. Since that plot has also been defeated, the last-ditch effort is now to hijack the peace process.
Nearly two years ago after the US-led TPLF-driven Hybrid War of Terror on Ethiopia went hot, Washington assumed that it would successfully reassert its declining unipolar hegemony over that Horn of Africa state within weeks, but that didn’t happen, nor did their terrorist proxies’ offensive last year result in that outcome either. Al Shabaab is incapable of replacing the role that the TPLF was destined to play in this scheme, and the combination of other Hybrid War means like sanctions and information warfare only further unified the Ethiopian people instead of divided them. The writing is therefore on the wall that this latest plot will also similarly fail.
Putting it all together, the US is panicking after its destabilization campaign in the Horn of Africa counterproductively resulted in accelerating the decline of its hegemony there. Far from subjugating Ethiopia and the wider region to unipolarity, all that it did was embolden them to embrace the global systemic transition to multipolarity more enthusiastically than ever before. In hindsight, the US-led TPLF-driven Hybrid War of Terror on Ethiopia can be seen as a geostrategic game changer that enabled its targeted civilization-state to prove the strength of its sovereignty and establish its credentials as one of Africa’s indisputable multipolar leaders.