By dragging down Germany and thus weakening its influence over Central & Eastern Europe simultaneously with empowering Poland’s rise as a Great Power over that same strategic space, the US hopes to play their EuroLiberal and EuroRealist blocs off against one another in order to perpetually divide and rule the EU.
An unmistakable trend is emerging in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) whereby aspiring leader Poland is hyping up the German threat there in order to consolidate its regional influence over the “Three Seas Initiative” (3SI) states. Recent examples of this include grey cardinal Jaroslaw Kaczynski accusing his neighbors in late December of plotting to create a “Fourth Reich”. He then went as far in early June as to hint that Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s plans for Germany to have the largest army in Europe could actually be part of a scheme to take over Polish territory instead of supposedly defend the continent from Russia.
Polish Central Bank chief Adam Glapinski then explicitly claimed in mid-August that Germany aims “for the recovery in some form of their former lands, which are now within Poland’s borders”. A few days later, Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau published a lengthy article alleging that Germany is nowadays pursuing a neo-imperialist policy towards CEE. Then in mid-September shortly after the Polish Parliament (Sejm) passed a resolution demanding reparations from Germany for World War II, state broadcaster Telewizja Polska twisted Scholz’s words to claim that he wanted to revise their border.
To be sure, Germany does indeed appear to be on the cusp of completing a century-long plot to capture control of Europe, but this time without firing a shot unlike during its past two well-known failed attempts. Kaczynski and Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro both alleged in early September that former Prime Minister and opposition leader Donald Tusk is really a German Hybrid War agent who Berlin wants “back into power in Poland at the head of a colonial administration” that would “subordinate Poland not just to the EU, which has become a tool for Germany, but to the Germans per se.”
I agree with this assessment and have been raising awareness about it for over the past two years:
* 14 July 2020: “Poland’s Future Remains Bright, But The Glow Is Dimming”
* 26 July 2021: “The US-German Hybrid War Against Poland Is Intensifying”
Since this year, however, the ruling party proved that it wasn’t truly nationalist at all:
* 23 April 2022: “Poland’s Ukrainization Puts The Final Nail In PiS’ Faux Nationalist Project”
Yet Germany continued manipulating Poland to get Warsaw to do its bidding in Ukraine:
* 26 May 2022: “Poland Just Got Played By Germany”
By coincidence, however, the disruption of Nord Stream I advanced Polish interests against Germany:
* 3 September 2022: “Nord Stream I Disruption: Europe’s Panicking After Poland Finally Got What It Wanted”
After this unexpected strategic shift, Poland felt confident enough openly challenging Germany:
* 12 September 2022: “The Polish Premier Implied To German Media That Warsaw Is Challenging Berlin For Influence”
The US is now considered to be backing Poland over Germany in their Hybrid War against one another.
To simplify the nearly dozen analyses listed above from over the past two years, the US initially supported Germany over Poland for ideological reasons but then switched sides after provoking the latest phase of the Ukrainian Conflict in February. America keenly realized that it could trick Germany into committing economic suicide by joining the anti-Russian sanctions, which would enable the declining unipolar hegemon to comprehensively reassert itself over the continent after knocking out the bloc’s de facto leader and crippling the dollar’s euro competitor.
Moreover, the US wanted to ensure that Western Europe wouldn’t have any remaining semblance of strategic autonomy that could allow it to independently explore a political solution to the Ukrainian Conflict that might then set the eventual basis for a rapprochement with Russia over the long term. By dragging down Germany and thus weakening its influence over CEE simultaneously with empowering Poland’s rise as a Great Power over that same strategic space, the US hopes to play their EuroLiberal and EuroRealist blocs off against one another in order to perpetually divide and rule the EU.
Whereas Germany is displeased with this since it aspires for full continental hegemony exactly as Kaczynski and his officials have correctly assessed, Poland is more than pleased to have a comparatively bigger piece of the European pie even if this means forever subordinating itself to the US. In pursuit of these American-allowed Great Power ambitions, it’s purposely hyping up the German threat to CEE in order to consolidate its influence there on that basis after already succeeding in making impressive inroads on an anti-Russian basis, thus ironically exposing its own self-interested divide-and-rule plans.