As it stands, there certainly seems to be some credence to the reports that Iran at the very least shared its drone technology with Russia so that Moscow could build its own based on those blueprints. This would be a major geostrategic development if it’s true, which is why observers should begin analyzing the potential implications.
Kiev just announced that it’s expelling the Iranian Ambassador in response to the Islamic Republic having reportedly concluded a drone deal with Russia that just resulted in Moscow allegedly employing those systems on the battlefield. While both countries earlier denied that any such agreement was reached between them, recent footage seems to suggest that the latest Russian drones look uncannily similar to the ones that Iran is known to have. In the event that Kiev’s claims are true, then it would be a very big deal because it would mean that:
* Sanctions Haven’t Dented Iran’s Military-Industrial Complex
Despite being sanctioned for years, economic restrictions – both the prior multilateral ones promulgated by the UNSC and the US-led unilateral ones that came afterwards –haven’t had any negative effect on Iran’s military-industrial complex, especially if it has enough capacity to export drones to Russia.
* Russian-Iranian Ties Remain Strong Despite Disagreements Over Syria
Even though Russia and Iran are regarded as having opposite visions for Syria, with Moscow seemingly preferring for Damascus to compromise with foreign-backed “rebels” while Tehran is fully against any such concessions, these disagreements haven’t impeded the strengthening of bilateral relations.
* Russia’s Military-Industrial Complex Has Serious Shortcomings
Provided that the latest reports are true (which remains to be seen and have been denied by Moscow), then it would mean that Russia’s military-industrial complex has serious shortcomings if it can’t produce its own quality drones, which would add to the list of constructive critiques about that country.
* Iran Doesn’t Mind The Negative Press Connected With These Reports
There’s no doubt that Iran would have expected its reported drone deal with Russia to eventually make the news and be spun for information warfare purposes by its rivals if it actually happened, which would suggest that the Islamic Republic didn’t mind and thus went through with it anyhow for its own reasons.
* The Nuclear Negotiations Might Hit A Snag
The US wouldn’t be happy with Iran if it really sent Russia drones for use in Ukraine, which is why it’s predicted that the nuclear negotiations might hit a snag should the reports be true, especially since Biden would look bad reaching a deal with Tehran ahead of the midterms in spite of that.
* Russia Is Expected To Give Iran Something Important In Return
Iran wouldn’t have risked Western ire just for a few extra bucks from Russia so it’s assumed that Moscow is expected to give Tehran something more than money in return for its reported purchase of that country’s drones, perhaps including some of its own top-line military equipment like fighter jets.
* Iran Is Truly Embracing Multipolarity
By entering into a strategic arms deal with Russia and thus provoking the West, Iran would truly be embracing its pivotal role in the global systemic transition to multipolarity by doing its utmost to create a third pole of influence with Russia in order to break through the present bi-multipolar dilemma.
As it stands, there certainly seems to be some credence to the reports that Iran at the very least shared its drone technology with Russia so that Moscow could build its own based on those blueprints. This would be a major geostrategic development if it’s true, which is why observers should begin analyzing the potential implications. While any such deal would suggest that there are serious shortcomings with Russia’s military-industrial complex that it would have to import drones or related technology from Iran, it would also reveal that their ties are a lot closer than even their most passionate supporters thought.