The almost doubling of support for the anti-establishment Confederation party in recent months shows that Poles aren’t satisfied with their country’s political duopoly, both members of which share the same stance of unwaveringly supporting Kiev in NATO’s proxy war on Russia. That issue is of paramount importance to average people since it’s resulted in surging inflation and a sudden end to their country’s post-war homogeneity due to historically unprecedented rates of Ukrainian migration. Neither PiS nor PO want to curtail Poland’s leading role in this conflict, hence Confederation’s appeal, which is critical of this policy.
Bloomberg drew attention to rising anti-establishment sentiment in Poland on Monday in its piece fearmongering that “Anti-EU Party May Emerge as Kingmaker Ahead of Poland’s Election”. The purpose behind its publication was obviously to scare observers into thinking that Confederation, the party whose support almost doubled in recent months to 11% while the ruling party’s remained at 34% and the leading opposition’s stayed at 27%, could pull Poland out of the EU after this November’s elections.
There’s no realistic chance of that happening even if the ruling “Law & Justice” (PiS per its Polish abbreviation) party enters into a coalition with it in order to continue running the government. Confederation has now become the country’s third-largest political force, which is a trend that everyone should pay attention to. The very fact that its support almost doubled over the past few months while PiS’ and “Civic Platform’s” (PO per its Polish abbreviation) remained the same is very significant.
This shows that Poles aren’t satisfied with their country’s political duopoly, both members of which share the same stance of unwaveringly supporting Kiev in NATO’s proxy war on Russia. That issue is of paramount importance to average people since it’s resulted in surging inflation and a sudden end to their country’s post-war homogeneity due to historically unprecedented rates of Ukrainian migration. Neither PiS nor PO want to curtail Poland’s leading role in this conflict, hence Confederation’s appeal.
They’re the only political force in the country that’s critical of Ukraine, even going as far as proposing last fall that migrants from there should be made to swear loyalty to Poland. While this approach hasn’t led to the party poaching supporters from PiS or PO per the last poll, it’s succeeded in attracting those voters who either hadn’t yet committed to any of those two or had earlier backed smaller groups. In the future, however, some might “defect” from the ruling party over its ironclad support of Kiev.
The reason for this prediction is that the preceding policy is responsible for Poland’s surging inflation and sudden shift in its demographics that were previously described, which aren’t popular with traditional conservatives in the country. Those who are unhappy with these radical changes continue clinging to PiS since it’s considered to be the “lesser evil” compared to PO, the latter of which is much more liberal-globalist than the former.
It should be clarified that PiS can’t truly be described as conservative anymore apart from its anti-abortion and pro-Catholic rhetoric since it enthusiastically supports the radical shift in Poland’s demographics brought about by out-of-control Ukrainian migration for geopolitical reasons. Those of its supporters who are seriously concerned by this as well as the ruling party’s newfound embrace of the EU in the context of the Ukrainian Conflict could therefore vote for Confederation out of protest.
That rising anti-establishment force isn’t expected to turn down a deal to partner with PiS if it results in them becoming the country’s kingmakers like Bloomberg just wrote about so bonafide conservatives don’t have to worry about the “greater evil” of PO coming to power if PiS doesn’t win a majority. Those who back the leading opposition party, however, aren’t predicted to switch to supporting Confederation since they’re irredeemable liberal-globalists who viciously hate everything conservative.
Nevertheless, it’s foreseen that Confederation will likely succeed in poaching some of PiS’ supporters and/or attract some of those 28% of Poles who don’t back any of the top three political forces in the country, which could lead to it gaining more than 11% of the vote this fall. That outcome would raise the chances that the ruling party is compelled to enter into a coalition with it in order to retain power, which could result in this anti-establishment force obtaining greater influence over policy formulation.
It’s too early to predict what form that could take and whether it would be confined to domestic affairs such as finance or potentially also involve foreign affairs like Ukraine, but it would still herald a major change in Polish politics. A genuinely conservative-sovereigntist party with pragmatic views towards their country’s role in the global systemic transition is rapidly rising in the aftermath of the ruling party discrediting itself over the past year as faux conservatives, thus giving PiS a proverbial run for its money.
The emerging trend is that those sincere conservatives who are disgusted with their government’s submission to liberal-globalism on a growing number of issues will signal their protest by voting for Confederation, knowing that this wouldn’t lead to the “greater evil” of PO coming to power. To the contrary, it stands a credible chance of pressuring the authorities to recalibrate their policies back in the direction of real conservative-sovereigntism if they cut a deal with Confederation after the elections.
It’s unrealistic to imagine that this would result in Poland pulling out of the EU and/or completely cutting off Kiev, let alone distancing itself from its American ally, but gradual changes in its approach towards any of those three could possibly come about as a result of Confederation’s influence in that scenario. The only ones who’d lose out if that happens are those who are presently exploiting Poland, since it’s they who’d be upset by it recalibrating its ties towards others in order to restore its sovereignty.