Scenario Forecasting: Here’s How Russia Could ‘Pull a Crimea’ in Belarus

Scenario Forecasting: Here’s How Russia Could ‘Pull a Crimea’ in Belarus

President Putin’s reaffirmation of Russia’s CSTO mutual defense obligations to Belarus has led to speculation that he might be considering a repeat of the Crimea scenario to (re)unify the two countries as a political solution to the latter’s ongoing Color Revolution crisis. Should he decide upon such a dramatic course of action, which would in…

The U.S. Foreign Policy Establishment’s Obsession with Russia

The U.S. Foreign Policy Establishment’s Obsession with Russia

During an August 16 segment on Fareed Zakaria’s GPS show on CNN, Richard Haass, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), described his organization as a “non-partisan institution“. Under the ironic title of “Disinformation and Election 2020“, an August 8 CFR webinar, includes this excerpt from host Carla Robbins, a vanguard for the…

Russian-Belarusian Relations: Back to Being Brothers?

Russian-Belarusian Relations: Back to Being Brothers?

Several recent developments in Russian-Belarusian relations — in particular, Belarus’ return of 32 suspected Wagner mercenaries to Russia, Belarusian opposition leader Tsepkalo’s departure from Russia, and the two phone calls between Presidents Putin and Lukashenko — hint that bilateral ties might soon return to their formerly fraternal level, though the fact of the matter is…

Washington’s Supposed Gift to President Putin

Washington’s Supposed Gift to President Putin

One of the comments made following Trump’s decision to relocate some 12,000 troops from Germany was made by retired Admiral James (‘Zorba’) Stavridis, who in 2009-2013 was U.S. Supreme Allied Commander Europe (the military commander of Nato). He declared that the action, among other things, “hurts NATO solidarity and is a gift to Putin.” This…

Lukashenko Just Hinted at a ‘Phased Leadership Transition’ in Belarus

Lukashenko Just Hinted at a ‘Phased Leadership Transition’ in Belarus

Belarusian President Lukashenko’s announcement that presidential elections will follow a planned constitutional referendum possibly paves the way for a “phased leadership transition” in the Color Revolution-beleaguered former Soviet Republic, one which opens up an opportunity for Russia to protect its national interests if a friendly candidate like Viktor Babariko comes out on top or ends…

Lebanon: Pearl on the New Silk Road or Zone of Dark Age Chaos

Lebanon: Pearl on the New Silk Road or Zone of Dark Age Chaos

Many voices have been quick to enter the chorus of commentators hypothesizing the manifold possible causes of the devastating explosions which occurred on the afternoon of August 4 in Beirut which has led to mass anarchy and the surprising resignation of the government on August 11th. While I have no great novel contribution to offer…