Let me cut to the chase. Every single world leader knows Trump’s full of shit. Even more importantly, the citizens of their nations also know it. Everyone with a functioning brain understands that pulling out of the Iran deal has nothing to do with terrorism, nuclear bombs or any other fairytale propagated by U.S. neocons. This is simply about the existence of a non-U.S. client state in a key strategic region sitting on massive oil reserves. It’s about empire — global games of power and money fueled by a desperate attempt to hold on to a unipolar world where the U.S. bosses everyone around.
A global empire will keep pushing and pushing until something snaps. The leaders of empire become convinced of their invincibility right before the end, and the U.S. is no different. Given the rise of China economically and militarily, as well as Russia exerting its influence in Syria, the writing’s already on the wall as far as where the world’s headed. Towards a multi-polar planet in which the U.S. will still have influence, but far less than it’s enjoyed since WW2. While shifts are already well underway beneath the radar, American leadership refuses to admit it. A serious decline of U.S. global power as a result of major mistakes related to Iran will begin to play out publicly from here.
It’s important to understand what a massive mistake pulling out of the Iran deal is. Irrespective of your opinion on its merits, it’s a deal agreed to by all major global powers. The U.S., Iran, France, Britain, Germany, China and Russia signed it. There’s only one country in that wants to scrap it (and did so today), the U.S. This is no small event and the long-term repercussions are enormous. What Trump just did, in no uncertain terms, is tell the entire world that no deal signed with the U.S. means anything. Why even bother negotiating with the U.S. if agreements can just be canceled unilaterally with no evidence of wrongdoing?
If you want to be the world’s leading power and operate in this manner you’d better be prepared to back it up, because you’re essentially flipping the bird to everyone. Trump pulling out of the Iran deal is him saying the perspectives and opinions of other global powers are irrelevant and easily ignored. This is not how you win friends and influence people, it’s how you lose allies, credibility, and eventually a global empire. Trump has now completely isolated the U.S. into an alliance of war-mongers that consist of a grand total of itself and Israel/Saudi Arabia. This is not a winning team. The U.S. is rapidly becoming a rogue state and the long-term consequences are enormous.
I expect this to play out over the next several years, not overnight. Part of the reason is that it’s not in China, Russia or Iran’s strategic interest to respond to provocations. Significantly, just an hour after Trump announced the end of the deal, Israel launched another attack on Iran in Syria (the third attack in the past month).
BEIRUT (AP) — Syrian state-run media is reporting an Israeli attack near the capital Damascus, saying Syrian air defenses shot down two missiles.
The official news agency SANA says Tuesday night’s attack occurred in the countryside in Kisweh, just south of Damascus. It took place about an hour after President Donald Trump announced he was withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal, calling Tehran a main exporter of terrorism in the region.
While Iran keeps saying it will respond, this would be foolish. Israel is clearly trying to provoke Iran into a response so it (and the U.S./Saudi Arabia) can justify further escalation and push aggressively for regime change. I suspect Iran understands this, which is why we haven’t seen any sort of counterattack. The more intelligent strategy for Iran is the one I expect it to employ. Namely, to appear like the sane actor by attempting to stay in the nuclear deal with Europe, Russia and China.
This scenario could pose huge problems for Trump and very publicly make the U.S. look unreasonable and isolated. What would the U.S. do if everyone else keeps the deal intact, sanction the planet?
The U.S. has already justifiably lost an enormous amount of credibly on the world stage since the Iraq war fiasco, and the best way for China and Russia to justify the need for a multi-polar world is to just sit back and let the U.S. continue to ruin its reputation with another series of dangerous geopolitical blunders.
I don’t claim to know exactly how all of this will play out in detail, but I’m highly confident the U.S. will become less and less trusted by virtually all nations in the years ahead and this will have major repercussions. By 2025 at the latest, I suspect the U.S. empire will be a shell of its former self and the world decidedly more multi-polar.