Will Sudan Militarily Provoke Ethiopia to Save the TPLF on Egypt’s Behalf?

Will Sudan Militarily Provoke Ethiopia to Save the TPLF on Egypt’s Behalf?

Sudan literally cannot afford to militarily provoke Ethiopia even if Egypt partially bankrolls this campaign. This simple pragmatism might be the only thing stopping the scenario that was warned about in this analysis. Sudan’s false claims against Ethiopia over the weekend could have been a way of showing deference to its Egyptian patron even if…

Sudan in Dire Straits

Sudan in Dire Straits

Free from house arrest, the Sudanese Prime Minister Abdallah Khamdok and Lieutenant General Abdel Fatakh Al Burkhan have signed an agreement at a public ceremony at the Presidential Palace in Khartoum in order to put an end to the political crisis in the country which has lasted for a month.  In accordance with the agreement,…

After Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan, the Chaos Is Spreading to Ethiopia and Soon to Eritrea

After Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan, the Chaos Is Spreading to Ethiopia and Soon to Eritrea

The Ethiopian National Electoral Commission has postponed the September 2020 parliamentary elections because of the Covid epidemic. The TPLF (the main Tigrayan political party) has nevertheless decided to hold the elections in its region of Tigray, thus clearly seceding from the rest of the country. The federal government obviously did not recognise these elections. The…

The Fake “Military Coup” in Sudan

The Fake “Military Coup” in Sudan

Remember, in the 2000s, there was a very deadly conflict between the south and north of Sudan. Appearances were deceptive as US private military companies, notably DynCorp International, fought there disguised as natives. In the end, the self-proclaimed “Friends of Sudan” (US, Norway, UK) imposed the Naivasha Agreement, which led to the secession of South…

The Great Nile and the Controversy Surrounding its Waters

The Great Nile and the Controversy Surrounding its Waters

After more than a month of consultations, the UNSC adopted a chairman’s statement calling for the resumption of the African Union (AU) mediation to reach “a binding agreement on the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).” The adoption of the resolution coincided with the arrival of Christophe Lutundula Apala, Minister of…

Challenges of Water Sharing in the Nile Basin: Critical Moments Approaching

Challenges of Water Sharing in the Nile Basin: Critical Moments Approaching

Egypt and Sudan are supposed to adhere to a binding agreement on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), even amidst reports that Addis Ababa, for a second year, will fill its reservoir with less water than had previously been planned, several international experts say. Just three weeks before the second planned year for filling the…