Talking to Rouhani: Is Trump Shooting from the Hip or Following a Script?

Talking to Rouhani: Is Trump Shooting from the Hip or Following a Script?

Message to Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and Tel Aviv: Not to worry, US President Donald J. Trump has no intention of meeting his Iranian counterpart, Hassan Rouhani, unconditionally. On the contrary, Mr. Trump’s surprise announcement that he is willing to talk to Mr. Rouhani is likely part of a plan formulated almost a year before he…

Will Trump Do the Right Thing and Pull Out of Afghanistan?

Will Trump Do the Right Thing and Pull Out of Afghanistan?

August of 2017 was the nadir of the Trump administration. At that point impeachment was on the table. Trump was mired in racist controversy over violence at Charlottesville. He had a falling out with Chief Strategist Steve Bannon. Robert Mueller’s investigation was ramping up. Members of his cabinet turned against, notably Gary Cohn. He was…

Will Trump’s Trade War Precipitate a Currency War?

Will Trump’s Trade War Precipitate a Currency War?

Last week, mid-July, Trump threatened $500 billion in tariffs on China imports, escalating his prior threat to impose $200 billion on China. He then threatened hundreds of billion in tariffs on world auto parts imports, targeting Europe. But Trump’s threats and announcements do not constitute a trade war. Threats and even announcements of tariffs are…