A boffin who uses maths to predict changes in society says his numbers show that western society will collapse in the 2020’s.
Peter Turchin, a professor at the University of Connecticut’s department of ecology and evolutionary biology, said the next decade would be marked by political turmoil and social unrest. He uses cliodynamics, which believes historical events such as the growth and collapse of empires or religions follow clearly definable patterns.
The numbers show that the US is on the verge of a collapse and will take Europe and the West with it.
While this might sound like a fortune telling, cliodynamics is solid science. He said that who ever rules the US cannot make much difference because we are doomed whoever is in power.
Turchin said that societies are like rollercoasters and impersonal social forces bring us to the top; then comes the inevitable plunge.
The problem is caused by because we have made too many rich people who become more distant from poorer folks.
“Elite overproduction generally leads to more intra-elite competition that gradually undermines the spirit of co-operation, which is followed by ideological polarisation and fragmentation of the political class,” he wrote.
“This happens because the more contenders there are, the more of them end up on the losing side. A large class of disgruntled elite-wannabes, often well-educated and highly capable, has been denied access to elite positions.”
The academic also suggested “the stagnation and decline of living standards and declining fiscal health of the state, resulting from falling state revenues and rising expenses” would bring about a potentially terminal slump.
It is possible to observe trends and stopping them before they cause problems for society. Although that does require a huge change in western and particularly American civilisation.