Russia’s grand strategy has evolved to the point of confidently pursuing its objective national interests without hesitation, unlike in years past when it still had hope of reaching a compromise with the West.
Former Russian President and incumbent Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev published a detailed end-of-the-year review at Rossiyskaya Gazeta on Sunday. He divided his opinion piece into six outcomes, which collectively put his country’s new grand strategy into context. All of this was preceded by his statement of intent with respect to informing fellow decisionmakers and average members of society alike about where Russia is headed in the coming future.
The first outcome concerned the commencement of his country’s special operation, which he described as driven by the need to react to Western-backed existential threats emanating from Ukraine. As could have been expected, he brought up this conflict’s relevance to World War II by lamenting that the West failed to learn its lessons from that time and is nowadays weaponizing fascism against Russia. Medvedev ended this part of his article on an optimistic note by pledging that all of Moscow’s goals will be met.
The second outcome that he touched upon was that Russia no longer has any illusions about the US-led West’s Golden Billion. The former Russian leader also expressed deep disappointment with Angela Merkel’s admission that Minsk was just a ruse to buy time for arming Kiev ahead of its planned final offensive against Donbass. That greatly contributed to Medvedev’s conclusion that pragmatic relations with this de facto New Cold War bloc are impossible until new leaders come to power there.
The third outcome of the past year was the global proliferation of Russophobia, which he described as motivated by the Golden Billion’s self-interested desire to distract from their own failures. Medvedev drew historical parallels between the past and present to argue that this has actually been a constant in Russia’s relations with the West. According to him, his country’s counterparts have always tried to cancel it since they won’t ever respect it as an equal nor accept its existence as a competitor.
The fourth outcome contained in his article was extensively detailed and involved Medvedev’s observation that the global systemic transition is irreversibly moving in the direction of multipolarity. To summarize his thoughts, he expects continued global uncertainty as the Golden Billion aggressively attempts to reverse this process in a desperate attempt to cling to its fading unipolar hegemony, yet the former Russian leader is confident that the Global South will succeed in reforming the world order.
Building upon the above, Medvedev’s fifth outcome concerns the literally apocalyptic risks connected with NATO’s proxy war on Russia through Ukraine if the conflict spirals out of control. He reminded everyone that Russia’s nuclear deterrence capabilities are the only thing standing in the way of World War III right now. Medvedev then wrapped this section up by writing that his country’s security interests must be guaranteed in order for humanity to move back from the brink of the unthinkable.
And finally, the last outcome of the past year that he felt it important to highlight was that Russia hasn’t just survived, but continues thriving and moving towards victory. He praised his people for their patriotism and lauded the economy’s resilience in the face of the West’s unprecedented sanctions. Medvedev promised that the state will protect all its citizens without exception, especially those in the newly reunified regions, and expressed confidence that Russia will emerge even stronger next year.
These six outcomes collectively suggest that Russia’s grand strategy has evolved to the point of confidently pursuing its objective national interests without hesitation, unlike in years past when it still had hope of reaching a compromise with the West. No such agreement is possible anymore, which is why Russia commenced its special operation and subsequently catalyzed the latest phase of the global systemic transition that put International Relations on the irreversible path of multipolarity.