It remains to be seen whether this unprecedented provocation will happen, but it would be directly enabled by the UK’s dispatch of long-range weapons to Kiev in the event that it does and obviously approved by the US in advance.
The Washington Post (WaPo) reported on some of the previously undisclosed Pentagon leaks over the weekend to inform readers that Zelensky is allegedly plotting to seize some of Russia’s pre-2014 territory in order to “give Kiev leverage in talks with Moscow.” This coincided with the UK confirming that it already gave Ukraine long-range cruise missiles and preceded Monday’s announcement during his visit to that country that it’ll also supply his side with long-range attack drones sometime soon too.
In between these two military developments was last weekend’s downing of four Russian military aircraft over Bryansk Region, which is within its pre-2014 territory. It remains unclear exactly what happened, but Kommersant reported that it could have been due to either surface-to-air or air-to-air missiles. Regardless of whatever weapons were responsible, the point that’s pertinent to this piece is that the security of Russia’s airspace along the Ukrainian border can no longer be taken for granted.
This observation extends credence to WaPo’s report that the US Intelligence Community is aware of Zelensky’s scheme to seize some of Russia’s pre-2014 territory since the newfound challenge to its air supremacy along the frontier could facilitate this scenario amidst Kiev’s impending counteroffensive. With that in mind, the UK’s shipment of long-range weapons to Ukraine means that London is directly complicit in its regional proxy’s plot to threaten its nuclear-armed neighbor’s territorial integrity.
To be clear, this sequence of events might fail to transpire for whatever reason so nobody should prematurely predict that Russia’s related territory will be indirectly occupied by NATO in the coming future. Nevertheless, if Ukraine does indeed make such an attempt, then there should be no question that it was backed by the UK with American approval. In that case, President Putin will be vindicated after describing the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine as an existential conflict for his country.
The Anglo-American Axis would officially deny any involvement in that possible dimension of Kiev’s impending counteroffensive, but their perception managers will probably hint that this is payback for the existential threat that Russia allegedly posed to both of them through its “meddling” over the years. The UK officially believes that Moscow supports Scotland’s independence while the US officially believes that it stokes racial divisions between Blacks and Whites, both of which constitute existential threats if true.
Referencing their accusations doesn’t suggest that there’s any veracity to them, but is being done to show that they’ve already established the narrative basis for explaining why Ukraine is being used as their proxy for posing an existential threat to Russia. There’s no comparing that which they claim was posed by Russia to them and what Ukraine might soon attempt against Russia at their behest since the Kremlin’s threats remained in the media realm while the Anglo-American Axis’ are in the military one.
If this worst-case scenario unfolds, then Kiev would be the battering ram that the UK equipped to break through Russia’s borders while the US supervised this unprecedented provocation against a nuclear-armed Great Power. Washington wants Moscow to think that it’s not involved and disapproves of this plot, hence occasional reports in its media that officials weren’t aware of Ukraine’s earlier attacks inside Russia and subsequently chastised their counterparts afterwards.
The Kremlin hasn’t fallen for this ruse as evidenced by its official allegation earlier this month that the US was responsible for Kiev’s failed assassination attempt against President Putin, thus suggesting that it would also call America out if Ukraine tries invading Russia’s pre-2014 borders. Once again, it remains to be seen whether this will even happen, but it would be directly enabled by the UK’s dispatch of long-range weapons to Kiev in the event that it does and obviously approved by the US in advance.