Eastern [African] Exposure: Ethiopia, Ethnicity, and other Kindling for Tigray’s Backstory
Opinion

Eastern [African] Exposure: Ethiopia, Ethnicity, and other Kindling for Tigray’s Backstory

There’s a whole mess of bloody messes around the world that few Americans care about. In fact, they could form a whole category of conflict labeled: “Top Ten Violent Hot Spots You’ve Never Heard Of (But Should Have).” The list might include, for starters, Nigeria’s resource war between herders and farmers (six times deadlier than…

Unrest in the Horn of Africa
Opinion

Unrest in the Horn of Africa

The Horn of Africa itself is of significant interest to many countries that consider themselves a geopolitical entity, since its geographical location allows it to control the connection between the Red Sea (and therefore the Suez Canal) and the Indian Ocean, where a large flow of ships passes. Djibouti hosts French, Italian, American and even…

The Consequences of Ethiopia’s Civil Conflict Will Be Acute
Opinion

The Consequences of Ethiopia’s Civil Conflict Will Be Acute

The most intense phase of Ethiopia’s several-week-long civil conflict appears to be drawing to a close after the country’s national defense forces gave an ultimatum to Tigrayan rebels in the restive region’s capital to surrender or face utter destruction, but the consequences of this conflict will likely linger for long after the war formally concludes…

Russia’s Red Sea Base in Sudan Is a Recalibration of Its Intra-Ummah Balancing Act
Opinion

Russia’s Red Sea Base in Sudan Is a Recalibration of Its Intra-Ummah Balancing Act

Russia’s draft deal to open up a Red Sea naval base in Sudan amounts to a strategic recalibration of its careful “balancing” act between the GCC and Turkey after moving more closely to the latter following the end of the Nagorno-Karabakh War, which in turn shows how important Moscow regards its “Ummah Pivot” as being…

Geopolitics Shadow Ethiopia War
Opinion

Geopolitics Shadow Ethiopia War

The news that Russia is to build a naval base adjacent to the Red Sea underscores the geopolitical background to the recent escalation of conflict in Ethiopia. The Horn of Africa with its intersection of trade routes is the subject of intense geopolitical contest. China and more recently Russia are offering economic partnership for development,…

Conflict in Ethiopia Extends the Greater Middle East’s Arc of Crisis
Opinion

Conflict in Ethiopia Extends the Greater Middle East’s Arc of Crisis

Ethiopia, an African darling of the international community, is sliding towards civil war as the coronavirus pandemic hardens ethnic fault lines. The consequences of prolonged hostilities could echo across East Africa, the Middle East and Europe. Fighting between the government of Nobel Peace Prize winning Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Tigrayan nationalists in the…