Scenario Forecasting: Here’s How Russia Could ‘Pull a Crimea’ in Belarus

Scenario Forecasting: Here’s How Russia Could ‘Pull a Crimea’ in Belarus

President Putin’s reaffirmation of Russia’s CSTO mutual defense obligations to Belarus has led to speculation that he might be considering a repeat of the Crimea scenario to (re)unify the two countries as a political solution to the latter’s ongoing Color Revolution crisis. Should he decide upon such a dramatic course of action, which would in…

Russian-Belarusian Relations: Back to Being Brothers?

Russian-Belarusian Relations: Back to Being Brothers?

Several recent developments in Russian-Belarusian relations — in particular, Belarus’ return of 32 suspected Wagner mercenaries to Russia, Belarusian opposition leader Tsepkalo’s departure from Russia, and the two phone calls between Presidents Putin and Lukashenko — hint that bilateral ties might soon return to their formerly fraternal level, though the fact of the matter is…

Lukashenko Has No One To Blame But Himself For Belarus’ Color Revolution Unrest

Lukashenko Has No One To Blame But Himself For Belarus’ Color Revolution Unrest

It was entirely predictable that the Color Revolution unrest that Lukashenko himself earlier kindled by partially laying the blame for this regime change attempt on Russia, which he did in a misguided attempt to co-opt this movement and use it as a post-election pretext for accelerating his pro-Western pivot, would ultimately end up backfiring after…