There’s no factual basis whatsoever at all to that scenario but dishonestly hinting otherwise is meant to artificially manufacture the information warfare narrative that Russia can’t be trusted even by its own mutual defense allies like Kazakhstan.
The Telegraph published an inflammatory piece over the weekend headlined “Vladimir Putin’s veiled threat to ex-Soviet states: ‘You’re part of historic Russia’” wherein the outlet claimed that the Russian leader threatened to take over Kazakhstan while responding to his counterpart from that country. The British journalist that penned the piece quoted unnamed observers in Nur-Sultan who interpreted President Putin’s quip about the Soviet Union being historic Russia as a threat to Kazakhstan after President Tokayev said that his government doesn’t recognize the independence of the Donbass Republics. The purpose behind this information provocation is to fearmonger that Russia’s about to backstab its CSTO ally whom it saved in early January by annexing its northern region.
There’s no factual basis whatsoever at all to that scenario but dishonestly hinting otherwise is meant to artificially manufacture the information warfare narrative that Russia can’t be trusted even by its own mutual defense allies like Kazakhstan. President Putin spoke the truth when saying that the Soviet Union corresponded with Russia’s historical territory that it obtained over the centuries, but it’s wrong to interpret this as him supposedly implying expansionist claims against every single one of his country’s neighbors and especially against Kazakhstan. The Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAU) of which Kazakhstan is a part enables its members’ people to freely move across international borders so ethnic Russians in that country could simply move to their northern neighbor if they were so inclined.
Another point to make is that there isn’t much of economic or strategic worth in Northern Kazakhstan for Russia to ever seriously consider reunifying with that historic part of its civilization. Apart from fields and some industrial enterprises, of which Russia already has plenty, there’s nothing of importance there that would compensate for the irreparable reputational damage of backstabbing one of its top allies. Furthermore, there aren’t any natural boundaries between the Russian- and Kazakh-inhabited parts of that former Soviet Republic either, which would make reincorporating and securing those territories comparatively difficult. Objectively speaking, Russia’s reunification with those lands isn’t worth it.
Instead, it’s much better for them to remain an integral part of Kazakhstan, especially since the respect with which ethnic Russians are treated there makes for a “politically inconvenient” contrast with Ukraine. It shows that this minority isn’t innately “problematic” or “treasonous” like Kiev claims. They don’t function as a so-called “fifth column” for “Russian imperialism” and thus shouldn’t be persecuted on that false pretext. As long as their human rights are respected like they are in Kazakhstan, they don’t have any reason to appeal to their historic homeland for support. Precisely because the example of Kazakhstan discredits Ukraine, Western perception managers want to destabilize it with fake news.