The Kremlin expects that this decision will ultimately serve its interests even if that outcome isn’t immediately apparent.
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on Wednesday that Moscow will return to the grain deal several days after indefinitely suspending its participation following Kiev’s UK-assisted drone attack against the Black Sea fleet on Saturday, which exploited this humanitarian corridor as cover. According to their statement, “Thanks to the participation of [the UN] and assistance from Turkey, it was possible to obtain the necessary written guarantees from Ukraine on the non-use of the humanitarian corridor and Ukrainian ports listed in the interests of exporting agricultural products for conducting military operations against the Russian Federation.” This was agreed to for five strategic reasons:
* President Putin Sincerely Hopes That Ukraine’s Grain Exports Will Finally Reach The Global South
The Russian leader and his Ambassador to America both previously claimed that Ukraine’s grain exports mostly go to its Western patrons in the Golden Billion and not those Global South states that urgently need them, yet there’s a chance that Kiev might now reroute some of its exports under public pressure.
* Russia Needs To Maintain Turkiye’s Indispensable Mediating Role
It’s important that Russia engages in pragmatic compromises with Ukraine brokered by their shared Turkish partner in order to maintain that second country’s indispensable mediating role, which is accelerating its rise as an independent pole of influence in the emerging Multipolar World Order.
* Russia’s Foreign Image Is Improved By Proving Its Flexibility
The US-led Western Mainstream Media (MSM) has misportrayed Russia as a country that’s supposedly impossible to negotiate with, yet the flexibility that Moscow just proved by resuming its participation in the grain deal discredits that false narrative and confirms that the Kremlin is ready to discuss anything.
* Kiev’s Written Guarantees Greatly Reduce Its Military Flexibility
By giving written guarantees to Russia that it won’t exploit the grain deal’s humanitarian corridor for carrying out any further attacks, Kiev greatly reduced its military flexibility in the Black Sea region since going back on its word would discredit that side as unreliable and untrustworthy.
* Kiev Could Face Serious Soft Power Consequences If It Violates This Latest Deal
It can’t be taken for granted that Kiev’s Anglo-American patrons won’t get their proxy to violate this deal, but that scenario carries with it serious soft power consequences since its Turkish and UN brokers might at the very least publicly condemn it and thus destroy that side’s reputation among the public.
Taken together, those five strategic reasons served to inspire Russia to salvage the grain deal despite indefinitely suspending participation in it just a few short days ago. Understandably, the Kremlin therefore expects that this decision will ultimately serve its interests even if that outcome isn’t immediately apparent. The most important takeaway is that this development completely shattered the MSM’s false claims that it’s impossible to negotiate with Russia. In turn, this could potentially create the pretext for eventually reviving the previously sabotaged peace process sometime in the coming months in the best-case scenario.