The anti-Russian faction of the US’ permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (‘deep state’) might be preparing to sacrifice Zelensky for the grand strategic purpose of provoking the scenario that would reorient their country towards prioritizing Russia’s ‘containment’ over China’s.
The US “deep state’s” grand strategic calculations vis-à-vis Russia and China are presently in the midst of change, with its permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies arguably shifting from prioritizing the “containment” of the East Asian Great Power to that of the Eurasian one. This is evidenced by its subversive anti-Russian faction recently gaining influence over the presently prevailing anti-Chinese one as can be seen by the former successfully escalating tensions with Moscow in recent days.
A false-flag provocation against Russian-friendly rebels in Eastern Ukraine or even convincing US-aligned elements of that country’s military-intelligence communities to attack them without President Zelensky’s approval is all that it could take to trigger a regional war. In preparation of this very possible scenario, the US and its UK ally ordered the partial evacuation of their embassies, a move that the EU described as “dramatizing” the situation and which was condemned by Kiev itself as “premature”. Quite clearly, the US’ anti-Russian “deep state” faction is gearing up for a war that Ukraine isn’t ready for.
They might be preparing to sacrifice Zelensky for the grand strategic purpose of provoking the scenario that would reorient their country towards prioritizing Russia’s “containment” over China’s. This very dangerous gamble might even gain the tacit approval of some of their anti-Chinese rivals seeing as how the Ukrainian leader is actually quite close to the People’s Republic. Economic ties have astronomically expanded over the past year even in spite of the US speculatively provoking a multibillion-dollar investment dispute between them. The anti-Chinese faction might thus regard him as expendable.
If Zelensky was truly prepared for war, then he’d be openly marching in lockstep with his patrons, not only with respect to obeying their demands to curtail and ultimately cut off ties with China but also in approving of their partial embassy evacuations instead of condemning them. The US-led West is dispatching more and more equipment to his military, which might actually be more under their influence than his own at the moment. Their reported regional military plans in the event of a hot conflict also suggest that they’re preparing for the impending onset of hostilities.
Zelensky, meanwhile, is still trying to give off an air of calm and control despite obviously becoming more anxious and increasingly losing control over the situation. The West’s recent reports that Russia is plotting a regime change against him might actually be meant to precondition the public into accepting his removal by one means or another, including through the US simply standing by and letting him either be overthrown by the opposition or even his own military. His sacrifice, up to and including in the most literal way, might be considered necessary to galvanize global opinion against Russia.
The best course of action for the Ukrainian leader would be to immediately implement the Minsk Accords, not only to ensure that his country doesn’t potentially collapse in the event that he can’t successfully avert the regional war that the US’ subversive anti-Russian “deep state” faction is obviously plotting, but also simply just to save his own skin. He might not be able to do that though if he’s actually lost control of his military-intelligence communities like has already been argued. If that’s the case, then he’s practically a sitting duck who’ll either go down like Gaddafi or flee like Ghani.
That’s of course an imperfect comparison in either case though since Zelensky isn’t an anti-imperialist hero like the first-mentioned Libyan leader was nor was backed up at any point by thousands of US troops in his own country like the Afghan one was. The point still remains though and it’s that he’ll either fight till the end or flee. It’s extremely unlikely that the US would be wiling to expend the costs required to keep him in power if any serious attempt was made to remove him, including from within its own “deep state”, especially due to the close ties that he cultivated with China over the past year.
From a Machiavellian perspective, he’s worth much more to the US out of power than if he was kept in office by whatever means necessary. Zelensky isn’t even that popular at home and there are surely competing oligarchic factions that are fiercely vying to replace him who’d be more than happy to prove their fealty to America by curtailing then cutting ties with China if it places their proxy in power. With this insight in mind, Zelensky’s future doesn’t seem too bright. Unless he immediately implements the Minsk Accords, he might not stand much of a chance, but it might already be too late for him to try.