Preliminary Autopsy of a Botched Coup in Late June
In the final analysis, it seems that Prigozhin was drunk, and by the time he sobered up, he said “ugh.”
RT:
The criminal case against Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) founder Evgeny Prigozhin will be dropped and he will leave Russia, the Kremlin announced on Saturday evening.
Spokesman Dmitry Peskov revealed that Prigozhin, a Saint Petersburg tycoon who made his initial fortune in catering, “will go to Belarus.”
He added that Wagner’s fighters will not be persecuted, taking into account their efforts on the frontlines of the Ukraine conflict. Peskov explained that President Vladimir Putin’s team “have always respected their exploits.”
PMC contractors who refused to take part in the mutiny – and whole units did not – will be allowed to sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry, Peskov stated.
“Always respected their exploits” is another very funny line, resulting from both a weird translation and Peskov’s particular brand of dry humor (he is sort of like the reverse Donald Trump, in terms of deadpan delivery).
I’m 100% in agreement with not charging any of the troops, as they aren’t responsible for the decisions of their commander. They also didn’t necessarily even know what was going on, and a lot of them bailed once they figured it out.
That said, I think any military or FSB officers that collaborated should be executed. No one has explained to me how Prigozhin was able to waltz right into Southern Command in Rostov, nor has anyone explained why none of the FSB agents around him neutralized him.
In terms of allowing him to go into exile – I think that was for the best. If it was not for the clearly pre-planned nature of the thing, you could say he had a psychotic breakdown. But the fact that he got into the SouthCom base, and was not arrested or shot, means he’d planned this out beforehand. Probably, he got drunk and jumped the gun. Or he had arranged the whole thing in case Putin surrendered. But he definitely did arrange it, starting with the screaming videos months ago.
I said it: we couldn’t know about ammo shortages, but we knew the line was not collapsing. DeepStateMaps showed the line. He claimed it was collapsing, and it wasn’t. So it seems the ammo thing was also a lie, just like it was a lie that the Russian military bombed his base in the Ukraine.
I said privately as soon as I saw that video of him screaming in front of those corpses that he should be assassinated. I didn’t say it publicly, because I didn’t think it was my place to say something like that publicly during the war. A lot of people read this website, and I just didn’t feel comfortable.
This is the headline I published:
And here was the bit where I gave a hint as to what I was thinking:
In general, and as a rule, I just write whatever I want, whatever I think is true. However, making an accusation against a guy fighting on the front lines just did not seem right to do, even though I was pretty well certain as soon as I watched that clip that he was planning a coup.
Looking back now, maybe I should have said it. I don’t think I’m that important that it would have changed anything, but you know, there is a butterfly effect, and I know a lot of people recognize that I have pretty good instincts, and maybe they would have put some extra dudes on the FSB’s “Prig Watch,” and made sure they had the ability to neutralize him in the event of a catastrophe.
But, as I said in that piece on May 5, it was all worked out.
I really can’t believe it, but it indeed was all worked out.
I mean, I said: “The war is almost certainly lost at this point, unless the FSB can assassinate him in like, the next 24 hours.” Then, either publicly or privately (I don’t remember, it’s been a psycho few days), I mentioned 12 hours. Then, about 4 hours later, there was news of the Lukashenko talks, and then it was over.
Our faith in Putin was not misplaced. This was a very wacky thing that happened, but Putin handled it expertly.
This is another thing that is probably inappropriate, but which I am going to go ahead and say: I do not think Prigozhin should be killed in Belarus. I would actually make a point to ensure he has good security, so he is not killed by some angry rando, as no one would believe the Kremlin didn’t do it. I would also try to prevent suicide, though people would believe a suicide, and there’s a pretty good chance he’ll do that.
I think this is a kind of deal you have to honor. It probably would have been better if a sniper had gotten a shot off while Prigozhin was still in Rostov, but with a deal made, I think it should be honored. Hopefully, this doesn’t happen again, but if it does, people need to know the Putin government honors these sorts of deals. I think killing him would also look bad internationally.
And I can prove it – here:
When I see that headline, I think “the CIA is going to kill him and then say, ‘Look! Putin doesn’t honor his deals!’”
Now, his quality of life is a different matter. Maybe there’s an isolated island to put him on, or maybe he should be put on house arrest, but I don’t think he should just be able to hang out in Minsk and do business and bang hookers. Obviously, all his assets should be stripped, and he should not be able to work.
How this thing is going to be framed is another issue altogether. I don’t know how history will remember it. History does not remember Brutus very well, though that perception is mostly based on the Shakespeare rendition of the story. At the time, at least some Romans viewed him as a patriot.
Was Prigozhin a patriot or a power-hungry Jew lunatic? Was he working with Kiev/ZOG? Remember, there were stories about him being in contact with Kiev. Remember that Zelensky flipped out on a WaPo reporter who asked him about it (apparently, at the time, Zelensky was not aware of the reports), and then WaPo removed that part from the transcript?
No one could understand why Zelensky got so mad. He started asking the reporter where the report came from. (Very interestingly, it was in the leaked documents allegedly from that kid on his Discord server, so it was crazy Zelensky didn’t know about it, but if Prigozhin was in contact with the Kiev Junta, he would have known about that, probably.)
That was less than 2 weeks after the infamous “old man screams in front of corpse pile” video was released.
Patrick Lancaster only made it to Rostov after the thing was already over. Poor guy. He drove ten hours just to see Wagner leaving. Anyway, the people were following after them as they left. It’s not clear what the sentiment was.
Ultimately, it is up to history. We might eventually know that Prigozhin was working for ZOG, if that is indeed the case. Most likely, it will never be proved either way, because even if it is in some documents, that could be disinformation (really from either side).
The Will of God is Not Ours to Decide
I didn’t question the existence of God when I thought the whole thing was coming undone yesterday, but I did ask God to show me why it was happening. As it turned out, it wasn’t actually happening. Or, it was happening, and then it stopped happening.
But it was an important moment for me.
An entire series of events flashed before my eyes: the collapse of the Russian state, NATO invading Russia, China being forced to capitulate because they no longer have any allies, the entire global movement against ZOG dissolving and disappearing.
I understood that if it was happening, it was God’s will that it was happening, and I asked God to show me why this would be his will. I think it was an important personal middle-aged Christian man moment for me. When you reach the point where you know, as an absolute matter of fact, that a God that is both personal and all powerful exists, you can in fact have flashes of anger at God. I did not have that during this event, but I wanted to know why, and I asked for understanding.
We have seen people who are saying that God is with Russia, and that God will give Russia a victory over the West. I hope that is true, and I pray that it is true, but I also think we need to remember that none of us knows the will of God.
If you say: “God will not let Russia lose,” and then Russia loses, then you are in a situation where you are, de facto, questioning the existence or the power of God.
The fact that Putin was able to solve this crisis so brilliantly gives further hope that God is indeed working through Russia to destroy the satanic system of the West. But that is all it is: a hope.
We don’t know the will of God when it comes to world events. The only place we know the will of God, as an absolute matter, is that He does not want us to sin, He wants us to follow His commandments, and be the best men we can be. World events are outside of that scope.
God is on Russia’s side in the sense that Russia is a Christian country, without gay child sex programs, but as we know from history, the good guys do not always win.
The Final Upshot…?
Everything is back to normal now. No more military on the streets, travel turned back on. (Yesterday, every single flight leaving Moscow sold out, and there were reports that at least some of them were being canceled or delayed indefinitely.)
It is interesting to consider what the effects of this botched and aborted coup will be.
I don’t really have a prediction.
So far, the only big thing that’s happened is that Defense Minister Shoigu is resigning (apparently). That presumably indicates at least some change in the war strategy. Wagner is going to be dissolved, with the Wagner forces being integrated into the Russian military somehow. (This is actually confusing, because Wagner was functioning as a foreign legion, with people from many different countries serving. I’m not sure how that will all work out; it seems like the Russian military would want to keep them together, and just create some new group for them. The boys are heroes, regardless of how much of a drunken lunatic their leader was.)
I think Putin came out looking good. If this would have went on any longer, it would have made him look very weak, but I think the fact that very little actually happened and the thing was resolved so quickly probably makes Putin look better than he did before the thing happened.
Prigozhin is now totally unsympathetic, as whatever his intent, he risked the entire war effort – and the entire Russian state – for reasons that were apparently personal.
However, if his real goal was to simply escalate the war, and move in to destroy the Kiev Junta, instead of holding the line and letting the Ukies beat their heads against it as long as they’ve got men, it’s possible that he will be successful, in some weird sense.
I think it is possible that we will see Russia get more aggressive after this. I’m not exactly sure why I think that, aside from the fact that Shoigu resigning means something is changing. I think Putin might feel like he needs to show strength after this crisis, in order to reinforce the impression of resolve. It also might have brought a new intensity to things. The war has been going on for a long time, and this kind of brought it home.
That said, the strategy in the Ukraine is clearly working, so it probably makes the most sense to just return to business as usual, stay the course, and move on to Odessa and/or Kharkov when the Ukraine is adequately exhausted.
Wild Times
The events of yesterday were the most intense thing I’ve experienced in a long time.
Looking back, it was very fun. Finally, something happened. The rapid fire of scenarios through my brain was traumatizing and invigorating.
Probably, a lot of people think I’m exaggerating. But the stakes there were history-altering. I don’t think Wagner was going to storm Moscow – I mean, they were already getting bombed on the road. But regardless, there was zero chance the war could continue while Prigozhin was holding the south of Russia hostage as part of some madcap and zany drunken adventure. All of that US equipment would have been used to push through into southern Russia. I guarantee NATO was ready to deploy a full army of Poles and Romanians.
The southern Moslems and presumably the Siberians would have declared independence from Russia.
Then, after that, China would be left alone, and so they would be forced into some kind of submission to the US. It would have been a total domino effect – a cascading failure of resistance to the ZOG Beast, caused by one drunken nutjob on a rampage.
I can’t describe the joy I felt when Prigozhin surrendered. It was ecstasy.
My only regret is that I wasn’t able to live stream it.
